Name: Allen Robinson
Age: 24 years old
Team: Chicago Bears (previously: Jacksonville Jaguars)
2015 Stats: 16 games, 80 rec for 1400 yds, 6 TD.
2016 Stats: 16 games, 73 rec for 883 yds, 6 TD.
2017 Stats: 1 game, 1 rec for 17 yds, 0 TD.
2018 Projections: 16 games, 70 rec for 984 yds, 6 TD.
Projected 2018 Fantasy Rank (FantasyPros): WR17
Injury: Allen Robinson was one of the 51 NFL players who suffered a torn ACL in the 2017 season. Robinson suffered the injury in the first game of the 2017 season while playing for the Jacksonville Jaguars, where he was poised to be their WR1 and a potential top-20 WR. He had his surgery just days after his injury, which means there was very little inflammation and he did not have to wait for his knee to calm down. Overall, ACL replacements are pretty standard now-a-days; while there are some subtle differences in terms of graft choice (hamstring, patellar tendon, quadriceps, Achilles) for the most part these new tendons do quite well. While there have been players that return in as little as 6 months (i.e. Adrian Peterson), this is usually not recommended. A standard timeline is 9 to 12 months. Since it will be about 1 year when Robinson steps on the field again, assuming his rehab went well, he should be good.
What does the data say? There is a 94% success rate after ACL reconstruction surgery, which means there is a 6% re-tear rate. A study from 2014 shows that there is a 6x increased risk of a 2nd ACL injury when compared to health subjects. 30% of athletes suffered a 2nd ACL injury within 24 months of return to sport, within those 21% had a contralateral ACL tear, and 9% had a graft re-tear.
About 20% of RBs and WRs never return to the NFL after an ACL tear. Those that do, experience about a 33% performance drop. Unlike baseball players that run the base paths in a straight line, RBs and WRs in football require lots of high-speed changes of direction, which carry the highest risk to the ACL. Anything that requires landing, cutting or pivoting poses a great challenge to the ACL. One study from 2017 demonstrated that NFL players experienced significantly shorter careers postoperatively than players in other sports (NBA, NHL), 2.1 years vs. 3.2 years. All athletes played fewer games 1 season postoperatively, and the NFL had the lowest rate of active players 2 and 3 seasons postoperatively. There was also a decrease in performance in the first season after the surgery, and this trend continued in years 2 and 3 as well.
Is it common to damage any other part of the knee beside the torn ACL? About 60% of acute injuries also involve a tear of the meniscus, the so-called shocks of the knee located in between the upper and lower leg bones. About 80% of patients suffer a bone bruise as well.
2018 Health Outlook: Allen Robinson has the potential to be a top 20 WR in 2018 for the Chicago Bears. Unfortunately for Robinson, his ACL tear isn’t a one and done injury. I expect him to have an noticeable decrease in performance, and I doubt that he will never reach the potential he could have reached had he not tore his ACL. The repetitive, constant, and unexpected pivoting of WRs will continue to put a large amount of stress on his new rebuilt ACL.
Risk of Re-Injury: 30% risk of having another ACL tear within 2 years, 6% risk of re-tear.
Recommendations: Despite reports coming out of Bears camp saying that Robinson is starting to look like “his old self again” I am concerned that Robinson will struggle to regain his form in his first year back from ACL reconstruction surgery, and will likely not finish in the top 20 WR (where he will likely be drafted). I would recommend avoid drafting him as your WR1, temper your expectations of him, and ideally try to get him as your WR3, with WR1 upside. In dynasty leagues, I would avoid him altogether.
NFL Draft Day is Here!!
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Waiver Wire: NFL Week 14
Fantasy football teams are starting to take shape. Hitting the waiver wire is a critical task in filling the holes or adding significant depth, especially as we enter bye-weeks and an increasing list of injuries. My goal is to find you the best player available for the lowest owned percentage. Therefore, you will see some of the more prominent names under others to consider.
Philip Rivers–IND (ESPN-16.5%) (Yahoo-40%)
Rivers has averaged at least 292 passing yards and two touchdowns in his last six games, and he just feels short of theaverage against Houston with 285 yards and two scores. In the next two weeks, the Colts will face Las Vegas, who allows over 20 Fantasy Points Per Game to quarterbacks, and Houston. Getting Rivers will bring you a top streaming signal-caller for two-straight weeks.
Others to Consider: Jalen Hurts (PHI), Mitchell Trubisky(CHI), Sam Darnold (NYJ), Tua Tagovailoa (MIA), Baker Mayfield (CLE).
Cam Akers-LAR (ESPN-35.8%) (Yahoo-53%)
Akers has seen an increase in snaps over the last few weeks, and he may have full ownership after his 21 carries for 72 yards while catching a pass for another 22 yards and a score. Both Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson will have a role, but Akers should be the bell-cow. The Rams tried him at the goal line on several attempts, but he couldn’t punch it in. Rams face the Patriots and Jets in the next few weeks, and both teams he should exploit for good fantasy performances.
Cordarrelle Patterson-CHI (ESPN-4.8%) (Yahoo-7%)
Patterson has become a running back, and he fits the role well. David Montgomery will be the bell-cow when healthy, but Patterson has gotten extensive looks. Against the Lions, Patterson carried the rock 10 times for 59 yards and a touchdown. Patterson has spent his career as a receiver; therefore, catching the ball is no issue. The Bears have Houston this week, and they are horrible against the run.
Ty Johnson-NYJ (ESPN-0.3%) (Yahoo-2%)
The ancient one Frank Gore was the Jets bell-cow until he suffered a concussion. Enter Johnson, who rushed 22 times for 104 yards and a score. Johnson showed promise and someone who deserves more of a look. He will face the Seahawks and Rams next, but he is of good value this late in the season.
Others to Consider: Peyton Barber (WAS), Phillip Lindsay(DEN), Gus Edwards (BAL), Carlos Hyde (SEA), Jeff Wilson(SF), Ito Smith (ATL), Benny Snell (PIT), Adrian Peterson(DET).
T.Y. Hilton-IND (ESPN-47.0%) (Yahoo-45%)
Through 11-weeks, Hilton was sitting on the garbage pile. Then against the Titans, he caught his first touchdown on the season to go along with four receptions for 81 yards. It got even better against the Texans as Hilton brought in 8 balls on 11 targets for 110 yards and a score. He is looking more and more like the stud we drafted him to be. Now the Colts face the Raiders and Texans in back-to-back weeks.
Jalen Guyton-LAC (ESPN-0.3%) (Yahoo-0%)
Guyton was on speed-dial for Justin Herbert. He targeted his receiver seven times, and Guyton brought in two for 38 yards. Fantasy owners may wonder how Guyton can be valuable with Mike Williams, but looking at the numbers and there isn’t much difference. On the season, Guyton has 20-369-3 while Williams stat line 36-572-4 in 11 games. That is just one reception and 18-yards more on average. The Chargers have Atlanta and Las Vegas next, which are prime spots for exploitation.
Rashard Higgins-CLE (ESPN-3.4%) (Yahoo-8%)
Higgins is the one that looks to be the number two receiver, and he lit up the Titans last week for six receptions, 95 yards, and a touchdown. Higgins has deep speed and will make plays downfield. The schedule will be tough next week against Baltimore, but the Giants and Jets could be an easy route for teams in the playoffs and championship.
Others to Consider: Tim Patrick (DEN), Keke Coutee (HOU), Sterling Shepard (NYG), Nelson Agholor (LAS), DenzilMims (NYJ), Breshad Perriman (NYJ), Gabriel Davis (BUF), Allen Lazard (GB).
Logan Thomas-WFT (ESPN-24.9%) (Yahoo-40%)
The Washington Football Team likes to target Thomas, which was prevalent against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Afternoon Football. Thomas brought in nine balls for 98 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. Even outside this performance, he is getting at least four targets each game. Thomas has another tough performance next week against San Francisco, but the Seahawks and Panthers are scheduled for Weeks 15 and 16.
Others to Consider: Jordan Reed (SF), Cole Kmet (CHI), Anthony Firsker (TEN), Dalton Schultz (DAL), Kyle Rudolph (MIN), Jacob Hollister (SEA), Jordan Akins(HOU).